The competition between China and the United States will intensify in 2022.It is unavoidable.Great powers have no other way of relating.There is no valid international forum to settle its differences.The world of balances has been the safest throughout history, but it does not seem that China and the United States are negotiating an entente in the Pacific.On the contrary, the swords are and will continue high.
President XI has promised not to transfer the challenge of recovering Taiwan to the next generation and reunifying the country.Calculate that it can be airy.This struggle is much more than a territorial dispute.It is the key piece that China needs to control the Pacific and be the most powerful nation in the world.Its GDP is equivalent to 70% of the United States and, thanks to its mastery of artificial intelligence, 5G connections and cybersecurity, XI hopes to match it in the next decade.
The Congress of the Communist Party will reaffirm XI, while the elections in the US.UU.They will weaken Biden
In the twentieth century, the United States defeated the four great powers that threatened their hegemony: the imperial Germany of World War I, the Japanese Empire, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.China now represents an even greater threat and it is not clear how President Joe Biden will face him.
The best strategy of the United States is deterrence, a massive military presence in the Pacific region that makes China doubt the benefits of attacking Taiwan.Biden reinforces this military position with an alliance of democratic nations against self -critics.
It is not clear, however, that it is enough.The chaotic exit of Afghanistan, defeat in this unnecessary war, weighs like a slab.It has psychological consequences on the population and administration.It does not seem that the White House will have enough popular support to defend Taiwan.
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XI, in any case, you can park the invasion.He has as many or more problems at home as Biden.Pandemia, border closure, the disruption of global supply chains, force it to reinforce internal consumption, to grow inwards more than out.
Xi, in addition, is in a hurry.Low birth rate and increased life expectancy as a consequence of economic progress are a great ballast.Children and resources are missing to attend the elderly.Fiscal income is also missing.The State does not collect what is necessary and fears in excess.Austerity is imposed.Suddenly there is no longer so much money to invest outside, to continue building the new silk route, the infrastructure belt that must be the basis of a new multipolar order.
Biden is also in a hurry.The Republican minority puts too many sticks on the wheel.Parliamentary wear is huge and it will still be more in this 2022.What does not take forward before the November legislative elections will hardly see the light after.It is very likely that the Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives.Even if they win in votes, the Democrats will lose seats.
American democracy is very unfair and dysfunctional today for XI's joy, which rubs hands seeing the stability of its authoritarian system.In autumn, it is very likely that the Communist Party grant him a third term, something unprecedented.He has been in power for ten years and no one will shade at the next congress.
Trump's shadow lengthens again;Republicans want it more than democracy
Trump's shadow, on the other hand, lengthens again.Republicans seem to love him more than democracy itself.They have manipulated the electoral constituencies to favor their candidates and will make the vote of the Democrats difficult where the campaign is more at odds.They can do so from the state parliaments that control and where anti -democratic laws pass.In Georgia, for example, it is prevented from giving water to people who queue to vote.
The decline of American democracy, the weakness of Biden and the consolidation of XI, the economic difficulties that both face each other, the decisive pulse by Taiwan and by the domain of artificial intelligence will tighten the seams of the world in 2022.